About the Retail Futures Series

The Retail Futures Series

Verdict offers two forecasting products. Retail Futures Quarterly Forecasting Service and Retail Futures Annual Forecasts Reports.

Retail Futures Annual Forecasts

Widely regarded as the benchmark within their field, Verdict's annual forecast reports present five year forecasts and analysis for those planning corporate strategy over a longer horizon. Offering greater category coverage and projecting more market parameters than quarterly forecasts these forecasts provide an essential and reliable and trusted indicator of future market development

Verdict's Annual Forecasts contain:

• 10 year historic data and five year forecasts for market and category expenditure (including value, volume, inflation and share of total retail expenditure)
   
• 10 year back historic data and five year forecasts for retailers' specialist retailers covering sales values, store numbers, space growth, average sales densities, inflation, volume and like-for-like sales growth
   
• Analysis of key macroeconomic drivers and issues that will shape demand.
   
• In-depth analysis of key market issues which will shape the industry over the next five years including analysis by market category/ sub category and an examination of factors within the broader UK economy.

UK Retail Futures 2013: Clothing & Footwear
UK Retail Futures 2013: Clothing & Footwear combines comprehensive insight into sector related issues such as how the current economic conditions are affecting expenditure, space growth and the impact of increased costs. It combines analysis of channel trends and specialists' performance over five years.
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UK Retail Futures 2013: DIY & Gardening
UK Retail Futures 2013: DIY & Gardening provides comprehensive insight into sector related issues such as food price inflation, space expansion and the changing patterns of consumer demand. It combines this with a host of economic, social and political factors to derive thorough sector forecasts over the next five years.
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UK Retail Futures 2013: Electricals
UK Retail Futures 2013: Electricals provides comprehensive insight into sector related issues such as inflation, space expansion and the changing patterns of consumer demand. It combines this with a host of economic, social and political factors to derive thorough sector forecasts over the next five years.
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UK Retail Futures 2013: Food and Grocery
UK Retail Futures 2013: Food & Grocery provides comprehensive insight into sector related issues such as food price inflation, space expansion and the changing patterns of consumer demand. It combines this with a host of economic, social and political factors to derive thorough sector forecasts over the next five years.
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UK Retail Futures 2013: Furniture & Floorcoverings
UK Retail Futures 2013: Furniture & Floorcoverings combines comprehensive insight into sector related issues such as how the current economic conditions are affecting the sector, space contraction and the growing presence of non–specialists. It combines this with a host of economic, social and political factors to derive thorough sector forecasts over the next five years.
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UK Retail Futures 2013: Health & Beauty
UK Retail Futures 2013: Health & Beauty combines comprehensive insight into sector related issues such as changing demographics and consumer trends and the impact this will have on individual category performance It combines analysis of channel trends and specialists' performance over five years.
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UK Retail Futures 2013: Homewares
UK Retail Futures 2013: Homewares provides comprehensive insight into sector related issues such as inflation, space expansion and the changing patterns of consumer demand. It combines this with a host of economic, social and political factors to derive thorough sector forecasts over the next five years.
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UK Retail Futures 2013: Sector Summary
UK Retail Futures 2013: Sector Summary is s new report published by Verdict Research that provides comprehensive and reliable forecasts for the retail sector. By examining and analysing a host of economic, social and political factors and modelling the impact of market-specific factors such as inflation/deflation, channel activity and shifting consumer preferences and provides an authoritative guide to the issues impacting the retail sector over the next five years.
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Retail Futures Quarterly Forecasts

Verdict's Retail Quarterly Forecasts are a unique dynamic forecasting tool which analyses the latest retail events as they happen and provides accurate projections of market demand and price pressures. This new interactive service, updated quarterly, covers 7 retail markets and 21 retail categories.

Verdict's Retail Futures Service will enable you to:

• Benchmark performance - in an increasingly dynamic retail world, external benchmarking is essential to set effective targets and maintain progress.
   
• Anticipate demand - providing you with reliable growth and inflation forecasts to help you understand supply and demand for your products.
   
• Exploit short term opportunities - enabling you to act decisively to events as they happen. A valuable complement to Verdict's respected annual forecasting reports.
   
• Understand the retail landscape and therefore your customers - Retail Futures provides unrivalled insight into the retailing landscape.

Subsectors included in Verdict's Quarterly Forecasts
 

Retail Futures Forecasting Methodology

• Verdict uses a rigorous integrated forecasting model that assesses retail’s position within the broader UK economy while also taking full account of the performance of individual retail sectors and retailers.
   
• Our starting point for forecasting is to determine the outlook for the UK economy over the next five years. A key source for this Ernst & Young ITEM Club – a forum of independent economic analysts to which Verdict contributes that uses the Treasury’s own economic model to produce forecasts for key economic indicators. The factors that influence our expectations of retail spending are analysed in the Economic Forecasts section of this report.
   
• We also consider the performance of individual retailers. Combining our detailed knowledge of individual retailers’ businesses built up through 20 years of exclusive focus on the retail sector and regular high level high contact with retailers, we are able to map out how we expect them to perform. Using this analysis we can then aggregate retailer expectations and consider external factors relevant to each sector. Pan-retail factors that we consider include demographic change, consumer preferences, competitive pressures, operating cost increases and the availability of new retail space. We also calculate the effect of sector specific factors analysed in the Key Market Issues section.
   
• Once provisional forecasts have been calculated an internal analysts’ forum is held to challenge the validity of each of the forecasts and check that expectations of each retail sector are compatible with expectations of other retail sectors and for retail as a whole.

For further details on methodologies employed by Verdict Research, please see our methodologies page.