A new model for forecasting UK mortality rates, formulated by a
group of academics headed by David Blake, director of the Pensions
Institute at Cass Business School, has revealed that British men
could live significantly longer than currently predicted.
“We know that people are living for longer, but this model
demonstrates that longevity is accelerating far beyond what is
currently predicted and that there is considerable uncertainty
surrounding future life expectancy,” said Blake.
According to the model, which is based on an analysis of mortality
data for 65-year-old males, males reaching 65 in 2050 would on
average live for another 26 years, six years more than currently
predicted (on the basis of Office for National Statistics data),
with to 90 percent statistical confidence an upper bound of likely
life expectancy of 32 years, which is 12 years more than at
“This will present a huge challenge for long-term health care
providers and intensifies the problems faced by both government and
the UK pensions industry,” warned Blake. “Providers need to
urgently update the projection models they use before the pensions
deficits reach catastrophic proportions.”
If the model’s projection is accurate, the government and pension
funds would have to pay out as much as £160,368 ($330, 400) more
per person. This based on an annual pension of £13,364 paid out for
an additional 12 years.