Brexit Tracker

One year on from the Brexit vote and business sentiment remains high

It’s been a little over a year since the UK voted to leave the European Union and the dire warnings of economic catastrophe are still yet to emerge.

Businesses, which before the historic vote on 23 June 2016, were told a vote to leave would plunge the UK into immediate and deep recession have remained remarkably upbeat about the UK’s divorce from the EU.

Markets are up, purchasing manager’s indices continue to be positive, and business sentiment is strong. While the pound’s drop has certainly been the most measurable and sustained market movement since the vote to leave, it has found a floor.

Now negotiations have got underway the UK’s eventual relationship will become clearer over the coming weeks and months, with early indications the two sides are willing to compromise to reach agreement.

Despite UK prime minister Theresa May’s embarrassing general election performance she looks set to continue to steer the UK through Brexit and her weakened position could mean the UK is more inclined to bend before it breaks under EU demands.

The latest monthly data used by the tracker has been mixed.

While UK sectors recorded increased activity, consumer confidence slipped.

Zoe Mills, retail analyst at GlobalData said:

Consumers predict their finances will worsen over the next six months, which has pulled down overall confidence in the UK’s future. This lack of confidence will continue as rising food prices stretch disposable incomes – primarily because consumers are increasingly concerned with food quality and unwilling to trade down, despite improvements from supermarkets on own-brand ranges.

Verdict has pulled together some key economic variables (including sector PMIs, FTSE indices, and currency movements) and combined it with GlobalData research in a weighted percentage.

The number, recalculated every day, is added to or subtracted from a pre-Brexit vote day base of 50.0. Any number above 50 implies positive business sentiment, any number below, suggests negative.

Questions about the calcuation, and suggestions on how it can be improved, to Verdict editor Billy Bambrough.

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