Quantum computing is generating a lot of news headlines, even reaching the mainstream.
On GlobalData’s recent Strategic Intelligence Instant Insights podcast, host Jordan Strzelecki (Analyst) spoke with Bill Rojas (Director of Tech Research) and Isabel Al-Dhahir (Principal Analyst) to delve deep into quantum computing, tracing the major milestones that shaped the field, profiling today’s leading companies, and assessing the realistic prospects for near-term commercialisation. In this article, we summarise some key points that emerged from this fascinating discussion.
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The quantum leaders
On the key companies shaping the quantum computing field, Al-Dhahir explained that major tech companies like Google, IBM, and Microsoft have been pursuing quantum computing for years; however, the current landscape is not exclusively dominated by large companies. Various start-ups like Rigetti Computing, IonQ, and D-Wave Quantum are competing to become leading players.
Al-Dhahir added, “The startups tend to be pure play and so they have the advantage of being able to dedicate themselves wholly to quantum, while the Big Tech players, of course, benefit from larger budgets, but their priorities are more scattered considering how many pursuits they have beyond just quantum.”
In addition to the computing companies, industry partners are also a key part of the quantum world. Banks like JPMorgan Chase & Co., HSBC, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley, and pharmaceuticals like AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson are all pushing quantum computing forward by providing the pragmatic use cases and the data to develop commercial applications for the technology.
The future of quantum
On the near-term commercialisation prospects for quantum, Rojas said, “If you had asked this question six months ago, the answer would have been 15 to 20 years.”
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By GlobalDataHowever; he explained that several things have happened since then, including deals like IonQ’s acquisition of Oxford Ionics for $1.1bn. These deals have meant quantum computing has gotten a lot of notice, which has meant the commercialisation potential is accelerating as the intensity of competition grows.
Rojas added that there are “three [quantum computing] architectures we believe are really vying for early commercialisation: superconducting systems, the trapped ion, and the neutral atom…there will probably be two or three winners in terms of the technology and the architecture.”
But will there be a quantum boom like what we have seen with the AI boom?
Al-Dhahir referenced the quantum winter that the technology was experiencing in recent years. However, Al-Dhahir adds, “we have now left that winter phase, and I don’t think we will be returning to it.”
Al-Dhahir explains that quantum computing is expected to be found in operational or commercial applications at scale from 2030 onwards.
Who is hype-ing?
What will make a quantum boom different from the AI boom is that the hype will not be consumer-led. Quantum computing will be restricted to enterprise use, and even then, it will be used in niche areas where classical computing falls short.
The quantum computing boom depends on investors and industry adopters understanding how powerful the technology will be and the problems that it can solve. Rojas concluded that “The foundation [for quantum computing] is very solid. The commercialisation then comes down to can you scale, can you solve the noise problems, can you get the stability?”
