The 2025 holiday smartphones promotion season will be unusually aggressive as carriers and mobile virtual network operators (MVNOs) respond to tariffs, elevated churn, and pulled-forward demand from early-2025 upgrades.
Carriers increased promotional activity through the summer—Q2 2025 saw 4,567 promos, up 27.7% year-over-year—and are expected to start holiday offers as early as October 2025 to counter softer consumer spending and selective shopping behavior.
Flagship devices will anchor most postpaid campaigns
Flagship devices (Samsung Galaxy S25/Z Fold7/Z Flip7, Apple iPhone 17, Google Pixel 10) will anchor most postpaid campaigns, with major carriers adopting 24- to 36-month promotional payouts to bolster customer retention. Offers will emphasize prorated discounts and inflated trade-ins values that top $1,000 with multiline bundle offers, BOGOs, and device payoff/porting incentives to attract switchers. Upgrade deals will be account-specific or in-app, limiting transparency and competitive undercutting.
Online and app-based sales will dominate the season as carriers continue to reduce retail footprints and push personalised private offers to customer accounts. Bundling of subscriptions like video, music, gaming, AI services, will highlight AI and 5G use cases while connected device bundles entrench customers into OEM ecosystems and build sticky multiline accounts.
Retention will be a driver this holiday season
Cable MVNOs such as Xfinity, Spectrum and Optimum, will be particularly aggressive, leveraging convergence with free mobile lines for broadband customers that can be combined with competitive trade/port deals – Xfinity and Optimum may offer trade credits up to ~$1,000 or free flagships via combined promotions.
Prepaid brands such as Cricket, Metro, Total Wireless, Mint, will target value and budget-conscious switchers, with mixed strategies ranging from flagship discounts at Cricket to low-cost device-plus-service bundles at Metro and Mint.
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By GlobalDataOverall, retention is the holiday season driver: Intensified promotions across postpaid, prepaid and cable MVNO channels aim to capture device upgrades, court switchers, leverage convergence, and stimulate holiday demand amid challenging macroeconomic conditions.
