Fear, uncertainty, and doubt descended upon the enterprise private 5G market last month when putative market leader Nokia announced a new strategy that didn’t include its Enterprise Campus Edge business. Bundling it into a new portfolio “for sale” bucket (which it acknowledged was growing, but not profitable) “came as a shock to other market participants, which have been reporting strong momentum recently”, said John Marcus, senior principal analyst at GlobalData Technology. Over the last several months, GlobalData has heard from vendors, system integrators, and telcos that deployments, revenues, and bookings were growing at high single and double‑digit rates, that deal sizes were increasing, and that customers had moved beyond pilots to production rollouts in sectors such as manufacturing, energy, utilities, and even healthcare, with mining and ports/logistics continuing to adopt the technology commercially. This aligns with recent conversations between GlobalData and large enterprises that have deployed private 4G and/or 5G in production environments, with multiple sites enabled or planned.
It seems ironic that Nokia would apparently choose to give up just as the market is maturing from early adopters into broader, but still early, industrial adoption. One conclusion is that despite widely experienced growth in private mobile/cellular networks, it’s just not enough to make a difference to the vendor’s overall financial position, even if it maintains its leadership position over the long term. Despite the deep-pocket investments Nokia has made in educating and priming the market and in building an end-to-end story, deal numbers and sizes would never match its telco infrastructure mega opportunities. In other words, the problem is not that private 5G lacks growth, but that its growth profile and margin structure do not align with Nokia’s new priority narrative and scale expectations. (Nokia insists it remains in the private 5G business where it aligns with large-scale telco infrastructure development: radio access network equipment relevant to private and public, and large-scale, wide area mission-critical networks for utilities, public safety, etc.).
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In the near term, the impact is less about technology discontinuity and more about uncertainty. Nokia has committed to support its existing NDAC [Nokia’s Digital Automation Cloud] portfolio private network deployments and to continue its RAN activities in this space, particularly for large and mission‑critical customers. We believe the business is almost certainly going to be sold, not shut down. Until that happens, however, customers and partners must navigate a complex picture: a credible platform, but with unclear ownership and roadmap beyond a two‑to‑three‑year horizon. That combination of continuity and ambiguity defines the environment in which customers, potential customers, and the rest of the market will now operate.
The deeper story is about industry structure. Private cellular is shifting from an OEM‑centric market to one orchestrated by systems integrators (SIs) and managed service providers. Global players such as NTT, aggressive telco B2B units such as Verizon and Vodafone, as well as specialised regional SIs such as Boldyn Networks in Europe and Future Tech in the US, now act as the primary counterpart for enterprises: choosing core network and radio components, integrating with IT and OT systems, and taking responsibility for lifecycle management. Nokia’s move likely accelerates this shift. Enterprises will increasingly choose a long‑term integrator first and treat individual OEMs as interchangeable building blocks.
Technology trends reinforce that pattern. On the core network side, “right‑sized” cloud‑native platforms, from both telecom and non‑telecom vendors, are designed to slot into existing IT environments and expose APIs for automation and application integration. On the RAN side, private network‑focused vendors are prioritising integrated small cells, flexible form factors, and mid‑band spectrum that aligns with available devices, rather than macro‑grade radio technology. AI is being embedded into management systems to automate planning, optimisation, and troubleshooting, while private networks themselves increasingly carry AI workloads such as video analytics and predictive maintenance.
The economics have also hardened. Private 4G/5G is no longer sold on technology enthusiasm; it is justified by operational outcomes. In factories and warehouses, that means automation, robotics, and higher production throughput. In utilities, it means safer and more reliable remote operations. In hospitals and venues, it often means combining clinical or operational applications with neutral‑host coverage to share costs with public operators. Projects that cannot prove business value struggle to get funded beyond the POC [proof of concept] stage.
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By GlobalDataSpectrum and devices can still be a challenge. Shared spectrum schemes such as CBRS and local licensing regimes in Europe and Asia have spurred deployment where available while telcos stand by with spectrum availability for their own and third-party customers for a cut of the action. But device ecosystems still lag both 4G and Wi‑Fi. That reality forces enterprises to be pragmatic: choose spectrum solutions where they can actually get rugged handhelds, CPEs, cameras, and modules, and use gateways where necessary until native 5G devices catch up.
Does Nokia’s retreat mean private 5G is in trouble? No. It means the market is entering its next phase. Large infrastructure vendors will double down on macro infrastructure and AI, some of which will overlap with private networking, but integrators, specialist core and RAN suppliers, and device makers will increasingly shape the enterprise space. The winners will be those who can make private 4G/5G operate as simply as Wi‑Fi, while delivering superior performance where required, measurable business-centric benefits, and a credible, decade‑long roadmap
